More stringent quality standards, shrinking world stocks, and new demand for biofuels are straining the already low export to production ratio of these important crops.

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In general, the last decade has been characterized by tightening global grain supplies and shrinking stocks. Demand for cereals for food, animal feed and industrial needs, such as food additives (e.g. gluten, starches) and especially biofuels, has been met with rising market prices.

Cereal grains are central to food security, given that they make up 80 to 90 percent of the world’s calorie supplies and are well-suited for storage. Cereals include wheat and rice, and other course grains like maize (corn), barley, sorghum, oats and rye.  The export value of these grains is over $40 billion, with wheat and maize accounting for roughly 44 and 28 percent of the total, respectively.  Countries tend toward self-sufficiency in their respective staple grains due to food security concerns, the uncertainty of world supply during shortages and fluctuating prices, and the high costs of international transport relative to the price of most cereals. Therefore, the ratio of exports to production is generally not high; that of wheat is 19 percent and rice, only 6.5 percent.

The largest exporters of wheat are the US, the EU , Australia and Canada. These countries export or donate their surplus production, some say with the effect of lowering world prices and discouraging local production in other countries. Certain trade liberalization reforms have taken place but producer support and trade distortions still exist. Prices would most likely rise if these were eliminated. For the next widely exported cereal, maize, the value of United States exports is over $5 billion, some  4 or 5 times the export level of the next largest suppliers---ie. France, Argentina and China. Rice accounts for about 17 percent of global grain exports and is particularly important in that it makes up almost a third of the calories consumed in low-income countries. The largest producers (China, India and Indonesia) and the largest exporters (India, Thailand  and Vietnam) are all located in Asia.

In addition to facing traditional trade distortions, developing countries exporting cereals are challenged to meet increasingly stringent quality and food safety standards. For….and maize, particular attention is given to potential mycotoxin contamination. Mycotoxins are associated with fungal infection that occurs before harvest and can also be produced in grain during storage or processing. One type of mycotoxin, Aflatoxin, is mainly present on maize (and peanuts) and is considered one of the most important mycotoxin problems for developing countries.  Another mycotoxin, Ochratoxin A, is mainly found on wheat and barley from temperate climates and on maize and rice from developing countries. The costs to developing country exporters of meeting safety requirements include the establishment of testing laboratories which require sensitive, accurate and precise methods of analysis and sampling.

Cereals topic editor: Daniella Malin